“It doesn’t matter if it’s a black or white cat. If it catches a mouse, it’s a good cat”

"The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function." - F. Scott Fitzgerald

Why This Matters To You

Before we dive deeper, let me explain why this matters. Whether you're building a company, investing, or trying to understand where the world is heading, this framework will help you see patterns others miss.

Let's Go Even More Basic

The Core Problem

Every civilization tries to solve one fundamental problem:

• How do we coordinate human effort to create better outcomes?

• How do we do this at scale?

• How do we sustain and improve this over time?

The Energy Perspective

Think of civilization as an energy management system:

1. Capture Energy

2. Direct Energy

3. Multiply Energy Impact

The Three Waves Theory

Wave 1: Cultural Operating System

Think of culture as your civilization's operating system:

• It determines what's valued

• It shapes how people interact

• It defines what's possible

Cultural Features

• Trust radius (how far people trust beyond family)

• Time preference (short vs long-term thinking)

• Innovation tolerance (new ideas vs tradition)

• Knowledge sharing patterns

• Conflict resolution methods

Wave 2: Institutional Architecture

Institutions are like apps running on your cultural OS:

• Education systems

• Legal frameworks

• Market structures

• Political systems

• Social organizations

Key Institutional Functions

• Reduce transaction costs

• Scale trust

• Preserve and transfer knowledge

• Allocate resources

• Manage conflicts

Wave 3: Technological Infrastructure

Technology is both tool and amplifier:

• Physical infrastructure

• Digital systems

• Energy systems

• Communication networks

• Production systems

The Synchronization Challenge

Here's where it gets fascinating. These waves must move together:

Problem 1: Speed Mismatch

• Culture changes slowly (decades)

• Institutions change moderately (years)

• Technology changes rapidly (months)

Problem 2: Dependency Conflicts

• New technology requires institutional updates

• Institutional changes stress cultural norms

• Cultural adaptation lags technological change

Modern Implications

The China Example

• Strong cultural cohesion

• Rapidly evolving institutions

• Aggressive technological adoption

• Attempting synchronized advancement

The Silicon Valley Pattern

• Culture of innovation

• Flexible institutions

• Rapid technological iteration

• Natural wave synchronization

The Developing World Challenge

• Imported technology

• Mismatched institutions

• Cultural friction

The AI Wild Card

Artificial Intelligence might be the first technology that can:

• Actively modify cultural patterns

• Redesign institutions

• Accelerate technological development

• Create feedback loops across all layers

Practical Applications

For Nations

• Invest in cultural development

• Build adaptive institutions

• Guide technological adoption

For Organizations

• Culture isn't optional

• Systems matter as much as tools

• Alignment is key

For Individuals

• Understand all three waves

• Develop skills across layers

• Look for synchronization opportunities

Questions for myself:

1. Is there an optimal sequence for developing these layers?

2. How do we measure cultural and institutional capacity?

3. Can AI help synchronize these waves?

4. What happens when waves get too far out of sync?

5. Are there natural limits to how fast each wave can move?

Possible counterpoints:

1. Maybe asynchronous development is sometimes beneficial

2. Perhaps some cultures can skip certain developmental stages

3. AI might make traditional wave patterns obsolete

4. There might be alternative models we haven't discovered

The Ultimate Insight

Success isn't about maximizing any single wave - it's about orchestrating their movement together. Like a conductor leading an orchestra, the real art is in making all parts work in harmony.